The Reality Behind the Transfer Portal: Most Moves Aren’t Up

A lot of student-athletes view the transfer portal as a launchpad to a bigger stage — hoping to move up to a more competitive or higher-ranked team. But new data from AD Advisors and Timark tells a different story. After analyzing over 14,000 men’s basketball transfers since 2019, they found that about 65% of Division I athletes either transferred to a lower level or didn’t find a new team at all. Even at the Power 4 and Big East level — the top of Division I — 70% of players moved down or went without a new home.

The study also revealed that for most Tier 1 athletes who stayed at the same level, their transfer was often within the same conference, and even then, they typically landed at a lower-ranked team. It’s a tough reality check for anyone thinking the grass will be greener on the other side. When big money and high-profile success stories dominate the headlines, it’s easy to forget that college sports are supposed to be about development, education, and finding the right fit — not just chasing prestige.