The Transfer Portal: A New Era for College Athletics
Introduction
The NCAA transfer portal has revolutionized college athletics, bringing both opportunities and challenges. What started as a tool to provide student-athletes with more freedom and flexibility has evolved into a powerful, yet complex, aspect of the collegiate sports landscape. A recent study by AD Advisors, a group of seasoned sports industry professionals, dives deep into the data and realities of the transfer portal's impact on college football.
Read the study here: https://www.adadvisors.agency/_files/ugd/71e62a_7e13867f4ed44a82ae0a8988310e40d4.pdf
Key Findings from the Study
AD Advisors' comprehensive study examined over 800 FBS football players who entered the transfer portal between 2020 and 2023. The research focused on Power 5 and Group of 5 programs and included insights from coaches, administrators, and athletes. Here are the standout findings:
1. Majority Transfer Down
60% of student-athletes transferred to a lower competition level.
This statistic reflects a core reality of the transfer portal: while it offers opportunities for athletes to find new teams, it often results in them stepping down in competitive prestige. For Power 5 athletes, this typically means transferring to Group of 5 schools, while for Group of 5 athletes, the next step is often FCS or even Division II programs. These moves are sometimes voluntary, driven by the pursuit of more playing time or a better fit. However, they also highlight how the portal tests an athlete's value in the competitive market, often revealing a gap between their aspirations and actual demand.66% of successful transfers moved down.
The increase in this figure for "successful" transfers emphasizes that moving to a lower level is often the most viable path for athletes seeking immediate opportunities. The dynamic underscores a sobering truth: the portal rarely propels athletes to higher levels of competition, challenging the narrative that it is a direct path to upward mobility.
2. Uncertainty and Multiple Transfers
30% of athletes transferred multiple times, playing for three or more teams.
The phenomenon of "school-hopping" reflects the portal's instability for many athletes. A transfer may initially seem like the solution to challenges such as limited playing time, poor fit, or dissatisfaction with coaching. However, repeated transfers often indicate unresolved issues or unmet expectations, leaving athletes in a cycle of instability.
Example: One athlete in the study transferred four times, moving from McNeese to Cisco College (non-NCAA), then to Western Kentucky, and ultimately to Texas State. While this flexibility might benefit certain players, it also shows how frequent moves disrupt continuity and long-term development.Repeat transfers correlated with further competition declines.
The data revealed that each successive transfer increased the likelihood of moving further down the ladder, from Power 5 to Group of 5, and often to FCS or lower. This pattern suggests that repeat transfers are often reactive rather than strategic, as athletes may struggle to secure a consistent role or favorable environment.
3. Promises vs. Reality
False promises are common.
Many athletes entering the portal are drawn by assurances of better financial incentives, more playing time, or a supportive team culture. However, interviews revealed that these promises often go unfulfilled. Examples include:A UNLV quarterback who was reportedly promised a six-figure NIL deal but never received it, leading him to redshirt after three games and re-enter the portal.
Verbal offers that sound enticing but lack written agreements, leaving athletes vulnerable to unmet expectations.
Athletes' advice: "Go where you are needed, not wanted."
Experienced players highlighted the importance of prioritizing fit over promises. One athlete emphasized the need for research and clarity, urging peers to demand written agreements and evaluate team culture, coaching, and developmental opportunities before committing.
4. Unsuccessful Outcomes
10% of athletes found no new team.
The portal’s risks are evident in the significant percentage of athletes who remain unclaimed. These athletes either withdraw from the portal, remain inactive, or are forced to end their collegiate careers prematurely. This underscores the need for careful planning before entering the portal, as its consequences can be irreversible.Athletes lose developmental opportunities.
For those left without a team, the lack of structured training, competition, and coaching significantly impacts their growth and future prospects. In some cases, athletes enter the portal without realistic expectations or a clear strategy, leaving them vulnerable to these outcomes.
Implications of These Findings
For Athletes:
The data serves as a cautionary tale, urging athletes to carefully evaluate their motives, opportunities, and long-term goals before entering the portal. Thorough research, realistic expectations, and an understanding of market dynamics are critical.For Coaches and Schools:
The portal necessitates new strategies for talent management and retention. Schools must balance recruiting new talent from the portal with efforts to retain existing players, especially in the face of tampering and NIL pressures.For the NCAA:
The trends in transfers raise questions about the need for regulatory adjustments to ensure fairness, reduce tampering, and support athletes in making informed decisions.
Conclusion for Counselors
For counselors working with high school athletes, understanding the realities of the NCAA transfer portal is crucial in preparing students for the challenges and opportunities of collegiate athletics. The findings of this study underscore the importance of setting realistic expectations about the transfer process, particularly for those dreaming of upward mobility through the portal. Counselors can play a pivotal role in helping student-athletes:
Evaluate Long-Term Fit: Encourage athletes to prioritize schools where they can thrive academically, athletically, and personally from the outset, reducing the likelihood of needing to transfer.
Develop a Support Network: Equip students with the skills to build relationships with coaches, teammates, and administrators, fostering loyalty and resilience when faced with adversity.
Prepare for the Realities of the Portal: Share insights about the prevalence of transfers to lower levels of competition and the risks of unmet promises. Help students understand the importance of thorough research and clear agreements before making decisions.
Focus on Holistic Growth: Emphasize the value of patience, development, and adaptability. Encourage athletes to view college sports as part of a broader educational experience, rather than solely a stepping stone to professional aspirations.
By integrating these insights into their advising, counselors can help high school athletes make informed decisions and navigate the collegiate athletic landscape with clarity and confidence, ultimately positioning them for long-term success both on and off the field.
